The Apprentice: what are the odds that Chorley candidate Paul Bowen will win Lord Sugar's investment

34-year-old Paul, a director in his family business 'Bowen Pies', is one of the 18 candidates competing in the 18th series of The Apprentice, which permiered last Thursday (February 1).

Ahead of the first episode, which saw the candidates head to the Scottish Highlands for a corporate hospitality challenge, Paul was deemed the most likely winner by Gambling.com TV betting expert, James Leyfield, who gave him odds of 2/1 to win (33.3 per cent likely).

James had based his analysis and odds off what the market had been saying and Paul's popularity may have something to do with his strong, and confident media presence since being announced as a contestant on the show.

For instance in one video shared to the Bowen Pies X/Twitter account just before the first episode aired, Paul pretends to pick up the phone to Lord Sugar who says "Paul, any chance you can come on The Apprentice, all I've had his muppets for the past few years." Paul then replies "We're busy you know, people of Chorley need their pies!" but is persuaded to head down to London after the £250k prize is promised to him.

But following episode one, Paul's chances to win may have changed, find out how below:

What are Paul's odds now?

According to betting expert, James Leyfield, Paul is now the third most likely to win, with odds of 4/1 (20 per cent chance). The Chorley local comes third to pre and post natal fitness coach Sam Saadet and fellow pie company owner Phil Turner with odds of 2/1 and 3/1 respectively.

From the reverse angle, James says Paul is the third least likely to be fired next, with odds of 25/1 (3.8 per cent), followed again by Phil and then Sam. Instead the betting expert thinks Virdi Singh Mazaria is most likely to be fired next with odds of 6/4 (40 per cent).

James' odds have proven accurate so far as ahead of episode one, he had given sales executive Oliver Medforth a 2/1 chance of being fired first and he did turn out to be the first to go.

Find out if Paul's odds are right on Thursday by tuning into The Apprentice on BBC One at 9pm.